The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets face off for the second time in a week on Wednesday, March 19, at Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers are looking to bounce back after a narrow 131-126 loss to Denver on March 14, where they were without their stars Luka Doncic (ankle) and LeBron James (groin). While Doncic is listed as probable for the upcoming clash, James remains out.
Denver holds a one-game lead over the Lakers for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets, with a 44-25 record (21-14 on the road), will try to solidify their position, while the Lakers, at 42-25 (27-7 at home), aim to close the gap.
Tipoff Details and Betting Odds
- Tipoff Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
- Broadcast: ESPN
- Betting Lines:
- Spread: Nuggets -2
- Moneyline: Nuggets -131, Lakers +110
- Over/Under: 232.5 points
Injury Report
- Lakers: Luka Doncic (probable, ankle), LeBron James (out, groin)
- Nuggets: Nikola Jokic (questionable, ankle/elbow), Jamal Murray (questionable, ankle), Aaron Gordon (probable, calf/ankle)
Nuggets Favored Despite Key Injuries
In modern history, the Nuggets have really been successful in this rivalry. They clinched two out of three meetings during this season and five out of six regular-season matches over the last two years. The Nuggets also eliminated the Lakers in five games during the first round of last year's playoffs in the Western Conference.
Even though Jokic was not available for the last match of the Nuggets against the Golden State Warriors, it could potentially be double trouble for the Lakers since he is a three-time MVP and is currently averaging a triple-double of 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game for the season. Even if Jokic and Murray are playing this time, the pace might be a little slower because of possible lingering injury worries.
Betting Model Insights and Expert Picks
Nuggets (-2 at DraftKings)
The Nuggets started out as 1-point underdogs but went up to 2-point favorites in a matter of days. So, the model heavily favors Denver to cover against the spread, given their recent success against the Lakers and excellent road record.
Under 232.5 Points
Two of the three matchups between these teams this season have hit the Under, with both games staying below 233 points. Additionally, eight of Denver’s last 13 games have seen the Under prevail. The model projects that the Under has a greater than 60% chance of hitting again, especially given the injuries and the potential for a slower-paced game.
Luka Doncic Under 50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (P+R+A)
Doncic recorded disappointing figures on Monday as he contrived to score only 21 points with 9 rebounds and 14 assists against the Spurs after nursing an ankle injury all along. He has gone under the mark of 50.5 P+R+A in three of his last five outings. The guard has further struggled with the Nuggets this season as he went under the combined score mark in both meetings when he was with the Lakers and when he was playing for the Mavericks. Considering his recent poor shooting form, including a 25% shooting performance against the Spurs, it makes more sense to take the Under on this play.
Key Trends to Consider
- The Lakers are 2-3 without LeBron James in their last five games.
- Denver has covered the spread in four of its last six matchups against the Lakers.
- The Under has hit in eight of Denver’s last 13 games and in three straight Lakers-Nuggets matchups at Crypto.com Arena.
Final Prediction
With the Lakers missing LeBron James and Doncic playing through an ankle injury, Denver’s well-rounded lineup gives them the edge. Even if Jokic and Murray aren’t at full strength, the Nuggets’ recent success against the Lakers and their overall consistency should see them prevail in a close contest.
Final Score Prediction: Nuggets 118, Lakers 112.