How India's WTC Final hopes are dependent on Pakistan? Explained

Indian cricket team in frame
Indian cricket team in frame

Highlights:

South Africa is on top of WTC points table.

India have fallen to third spot after Adelaide loss.

Australia are currently at the number 2 spot.

After defeating Sri Lanka by 109 runs in the second Test at St. George Park in Gqeberha to complete a 2-0 series triumph, South Africa surged to the top of the World Test Championship (WTC) standings. Keshav Maharaj's five-wicket haul ensured the hosts finished a whitewash despite the visitors' heroic battle.

With Sri Lanka dropping to 45.45% and New Zealand losing 2-0 at home in a three-match series, this outcome has essentially guaranteed that India, Australia, and South Africa are the three main contenders to go to the 2025 final. Currently, the Proteas lead with 63.33%, followed by Australia in second position with 60.71 and India in third place with 57.29%.

How can Pakistan help India's WTC Final dream

Australia will visit Sri Lanka for a two-match Test series in January, while India's final match in the 2023–25 cycle is the current series against Australia. In the meantime, South Africa will play a two-match Test series at home against Pakistan to wrap off their campaign. Shan Masood's team will play against the Temba Bavuma-led team in Centurion from December 26 to 30 and Cape Town from January 3 to 7.

Even if India wins all three Test matches against Australia, they will not be able to finish higher than South Africa if they win both matches. The Rohit Sharma-led team will, however, be certain to finish ahead of Australia and earn a spot in the final if that improbable scenario materializes.

However, if the defending champions win both games in Sri Lanka, India would finish below Australia even if they win two games and lose one of the other three. The two-time runners-up would require the Proteas to either draw or lose both of their matches against Pakistan in order to finish ahead of South Africa in that scenario.