Pakistan are likely to boycott their T20 World Cup 2026 group-stage match against India which is scheduled to take place in Colombo. While the decision is political, it could seriously hurt Pakistan’s chances of qualifying for the Super 8, especially because the weather in Sri Lanka is unpredictable.
Pakistan will play all their group matches in Sri Lanka. Out of the four games, they are already set to skip one, the high-voltage clash against India. That leaves them with just three matches to earn points, and rain could play spoilsport in at least two of them.
The Salman Agha-led side will face the Netherlands, the USA, India and Namibia in the group stage. If even one of the remaining matches is washed out due to rain, Pakistan could fall behind not only on points, but also on Net Run Rate (NRR), which often decides qualification in tight groups. Colombo’s weather has a history of sudden rain showers, and that makes Pakistan’s situation even more risky.
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How serious is the rain threat?
According to AccuWeather forecasts, Pakistan’s opening match against the Netherlands has a high chance of rain, especially in the second half of the game. A washout here would mean both teams share points, which would already put Pakistan under pressure.
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Interestingly, the two matches with no rain forecast are against USA and India. Pakistan had suffered a shock loss to the USA in the previous edition of the T20 World Cup in 2024, which played a big role in their early exit.
However, the Pakistan government has already announced its decision to boycott the India match on February 15. As of now, the ICC has not received any official written notice regarding the boycott.
Pakistan’s final group game against Namibia has a low chance of rain, so that match is expected to go ahead with only minor interruptions, if any.
Colombo Weather During Pakistan’s Group Matches
| Date | Match | Rain Chances |
|---|---|---|
| February 7 | Pakistan vs Netherlands | High – around 64% |
| February 10 | Pakistan vs USA | No rain expected |
| February 15 | Pakistan vs India | Boycott |
| February 18 | Pakistan vs Namibia | Low – around 25% |
Why Net Run Rate is Pakistan’s biggest worry
If Pakistan boycott their clash against India, then the match will be considered a forfeit under ICC rules. This means Pakistan will lose two points automatically, and their Net Run Rate will take a massive hit.
As per ICC Playing Conditions (Clause 16.10.7), in case of a forfeit:
Pakistan will be treated as if they batted the full 20 overs
They will be considered to have scored zero runs
India’s Net Run Rate will remain unaffected
In simple terms, it will look like Pakistan played 20 overs and failed to score even a single run, which is a scenario that can badly damage their NRR.
Playing against India, even in a loss, would have at least given Pakistan a chance to protect their Net Run Rate. On their day, Pakistan are capable of challenging any team, especially on tricky pitches.
But by skipping the India match and with rain threatening the remaining fixtures, Pakistan’s road to the Super 8 looks extremely difficult. One washout could be enough to end their campaign before it truly begins.