Pakistan’s T20 World Cup semi-final qualification scenarios explained after Super 8 loss against England

Pakistan's defeat against England in their second T20 World Cup 2026 Super 8 clash has dented their hopes for the semifinal of the marquee event. Their first Super 8 clash against New Zealand had already been washed out due to rain, which meant they shared points. Now, after two matches, Pakistan have just one point and only one game left, which will be against Sri Lanka.

They are not officially out of the tournament yet, but their qualification now depends not only on winning their final match but also on how other results go.

So, what needs to happen for Pakistan to reach the semi-finals?

1st scenario for Pakistan

One possible way is if New Zealand lose both of their remaining matches, against Sri Lanka and England. If that happens, and Pakistan beats Sri Lanka, Pakistan will move to three points, while New Zealand will stay on one. In that case, Pakistan would finish above them. If Sri Lanka loses to Pakistan but beats New Zealand, Sri Lanka would end with two points, which would still keep Pakistan ahead.

2nd scenario for Pakistan

There is another scenario too. If New Zealand beats Sri Lanka but then loses to England, and Pakistan also defeat Sri Lanka, both Pakistan and New Zealand will end up with three points each. In that situation, the net run rate will decide which team moves ahead.

However, if New Zealand win both their remaining matches against Sri Lanka and England, they will reach five points. That would confirm their place in the semi-finals alongside England. If that happens, Pakistan will be knocked out even before playing their final match against Sri Lanka.

In short, Pakistan must win their last game and hope New Zealand slip up. Their fate is no longer fully in their own hands.