Jannik Sinner may enter the Wimbledon 2026 semi-final as the favorite, but Novak Djokovic possesses one psychological advantage that could prove decisive in their blockbuster showdown. While Sinner has dominated the recent head-to-head rivalry, the Serbian's victory over the Italian in this year's Australian Open semi-final has emerged as a factor that could influence their latest Grand Slam meeting.
The two stars will meet in the Wimbledon semi-finals for the second consecutive year after Sinner defeated Djokovic at the same stage in 2025 before going on to lift his maiden title at the All England Club.
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Australian Open triumph could give Djokovic a psychological edge
Since the start of the 2024 season, Sinner has largely had the upper hand over Djokovic, winning five of their six tour-level meetings. However, the lone exception came at the 2026 Australian Open, where Novak Djokovic prevailed in a five-set thriller to halt Sinner's bid for a third straight title in Melbourne.
According to renowned coach Patrick Mouratoglou, that victory could linger in Jannik Sinner's mind when the pair step onto Centre Court.
Speaking on Instagram, Mouratoglou said:
"The only exception was this year at the Australian Open, and that's why I think that the fact that Novak beat him will play a role."
He added that facing the same opponent in another Grand Slam semi-final could revive memories of that defeat, potentially creating a mental hurdle despite Sinner's recent dominance in the rivalry.
Sinner remains the favorite despite Djokovic's experience
Despite highlighting Djokovic's psychological advantage, Mouratoglou believes the world No. 1 remains the clear favorite to reach the final.
The French coach pointed to Sinner's consistency over the past two seasons and his commanding record against everyone on tour outside of Carlos Alcaraz.
"The favourite is definitely Jannik Sinner and by far."
Mouratoglou also suggested that weather conditions and long baseline exchanges could significantly influence the outcome of the contest.
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While Sinner enters the semi-final with momentum and an impressive recent record against Novak Djokovic, the Serbian's victory in Melbourne earlier this year gives him a mental edge that could make the Wimbledon rematch far more evenly balanced than the head-to-head record suggests.