How India can qualify for WTC 2023-25 final even if they lose Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25: All scenarios explained!

The Rohit Sharma-led Indian side was blanked at home by New Zealand as they completed a 3-0 cleansweep at Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai. The series loss to the Kiwis left India's chances of making it to their third consecutive World Test Championship (WTC) final in jeopardy. Following the historic loss, legendary Indian cricketer Sunil Gavaskar in a conversation with Sports Tak, ruled out the possibility of India winning the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2024-25 Trophy 4-0 (including one draw). Gavaskar wants them to focus on winning the series rather than focusing on 4-0.

However, even if India lose the series on Australian soil, all hope is not lost. They can still make it to the WTC 2023-25 final if they lose the Test series 2-3 in Australia. In this scenario, India's win percentage will be 53.51, only second to defending champions Australia.

India to back 'Bazballers'

For India to finish second, a lot of permutations and combinations will be involved as they will be dependent on favours from other sides. The first favour they'll need from a side that put them in this situation, New Zealand. Ben Stokes' England will tour New Zealand next month. England are already out of WTC final contention. If they beat New Zealand 3-0, the hosts' win percentage will drop significantly. While a whitewash in New Zealand seems unlikely, if the series ends in a 1-1 draw, it will help India as WTC 2021 winners' win percentage will be 52.38.

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Hoping that Proteas bounce out Sri Lankans

While the three-Test series between New Zealand and England will be underway, all eyes will be on the two-Test series between South Africa and Sri Lanka. India would want the series to end in a 1-1 draw. 

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Favour from Pakistan and Australia

While India will be busy taking on Australia, South Africa will go up against Pakistan at home. Similar to the series against Sri Lanka, India need a 1-1 result to the two-Test series between South Africa and Pakistan as well. In this case, South Africa's win percentage of 52.78 will be lower than India. If Pakistan create history and win the series on South African soil, India will still benefit from it. 

The last Test series India would want in their favour is Australia's tour of Sri Lanka. The two-Test series needs to end in a 0-0 draw. If Australia win the series, everything will go as planned for India. If the two Tests end in a draw, Sri Lanka's win percentage will be 51.28.