DECODED: South Africa’s path to T20 World Cup semis still uncertain despite big win over West Indies

South Africa’s dominant nine-wicket victory over West Indies at Ahmedabad's Narendra Modi Stadium has placed them in a commanding position in the Super 8 stage. This win follows their earlier 76-run thrashing of India at the same venue, leaving the Proteas with a perfect record of four points from two games. Their massive wins have also gifted them a formidable Net Run Rate (NRR) of +2.890, making them the clear frontrunners in Group 1 with T20 World Cup 2026 semifinals race heating up.

What’s holding South Africa back from the T20 World Cup semifinals?

Despite their unblemished record and superior NRR, Aiden Markram-led South Africa have not yet mathematically secured a spot in the semifinals. In contrast, England, competing in Group 2, have already officially qualified for the final four, despite having a lower NRR than the Proteas. This discrepancy is due to the specific point distributions and remaining fixtures within South Africa’s group, which keep a slim possibility of elimination alive.

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For South Africa to be knocked out at this stage, a very specific and unlikely set of results would need to occur. First, Zimbabwe would need to pull off an upset against India in Chennai on February 26. Following that, Zimbabwe would have to defeat South Africa by a substantial margin in their final Super 8 game, while the West Indies would also need to beat India in their closing fixture.

In this rare nightmare scenario for the Proteas, India would finish at the bottom of the group with zero points, while South Africa, the West Indies, and Zimbabwe would all be tied with four points each. Under these circumstances, the two semifinalists would be decided by Net Run Rate. If the margins of victory for Zimbabwe and the West Indies are large enough, South Africa could find themselves pushed down to third place and eliminated from the tournament.

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However, the chances of South Africa landing up in the receiving end are really low, given their top-notch show in the ongoing tournament.