Pakistan semifinal scenario: What Pakistan must do to qualify for T20 World Cup semifinal after England defeat New Zealand

England's thrilling win over New Zealand has dramatically revived Pakistan's T20 World Cup 2026 campaign, breathing new life into their hopes of reaching the semifinals. The Salman Ali Agha-led side found themselves in a precarious position, entirely dependent on the outcome of the England-New Zealand match at the R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo. With England already guaranteed a spot in the final four, their win over the Black Caps has opened the door for Pakistan to potentially secure the second qualification spot from Super 8 Group 2, despite Pakistan having not yet won a match in this stage.

How can Pakistan qualify for T20 World Cup semifinals?

Consequently, Pakistan's upcoming clash against Sri Lanka on February 28 has escalated into a absolute must-win scenario. Their situation was so dire that a washout in the England-New Zealand match would have eliminated them instantly. Now, the focus shifts entirely to their final group game, which has become both crucial and mathematically tricky.

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If Pakistan defeat Sri Lanka, both they and New Zealand will finish level on three points, forcing the qualification decision to be determined by Net Run Rate (NRR). To successfully leapfrog the Black Caps and secure a semifinal berth, Pakistan must achieve a substantial victory; they need to beat Sri Lanka by either 68 runs or chase down their target within 13 overs.

England notch up thrilling win over New Zealand

Batting first New Zealand posted a competitive total of 159/7, thanks to solid contributions from Glenn Phillips, who scored 39 off 28 balls, and Tim Seifert, who added 35 from 25 balls. For a time, it appeared the Black Caps were headed for a straightforward win that would secure their place in the semifinals.

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However, the game shifted dramatically thanks to a blistering 44-run partnership between Will Jacks and Rehan Ahmed. Together, they scored these runs in just 16 balls—with Jacks hitting 32 off 18 and Ahmed smashing 19 off only 7—completely turning the tables on New Zealand and swinging the momentum toward England.

With England and South Africa having already secured their places in the semifinals, only two spots remain available. The final matches of the Super 8 stage are now virtual knockouts to determine the remaining contenders. Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka by a margin of 68 runs or chase down their target in just 13 overs to edge out New Zealand on net run rate. Meanwhile, the final spot will be decided when India takes on the West Indies, with the winner of that matchup advancing to the semifinals.