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The ICC World Test Championship (WTC) standings have been rearranged due to South Africa's decisive victory over Bangladesh in the opening Test at Mirpur, making it more difficult for India to advance to the WTC final. After South Africa's comeback, India's margin for error has decreased as the competition for a top-two finish heats up. Every victory will be crucial in the closing phases of this season, and the fight for the WTC final positions is fiercer than ever.
The points percentage (PCT) for South Africa was 38.89% before to their triumph in Mirpur. Their PCT increased to 47.62% as a result of the victory, moving them up to fourth position in the WTC rankings and ahead of England (43.06%) and New Zealand (44.44%). The increase puts further pressure on India and Australia, who now hold the top two spots, and puts South Africa back in the running for a WTC final spot. Bangladesh's PCT fell from 34.38% to 30.56%, guaranteeing their elimination from the race to the WTC final, even if their loss had no effect on their seventh-place ranking.
After the Mirpur Test, Australia has an 84% chance of making it to the World Test Championship finals, followed by India at 57%, according to cricket statistician Krishna Kumar. With 46%, South Africa is still in the running after the decisive victory over Bangladesh, while Sri Lanka has a remote chance of winning at 10%. England and Pakistan have very low odds, at 0.2% and 0.04%, respectively, while New Zealand has a 3% chance.
SA's win big blow to India
With a PCT of 68.06%, India leads the table and is still in a strong position, but their chances of making it to the final have become really tricky. India needs at least four victories and one draw from their remaining seven games to guarantee a position in the final without depending on other outcomes.
Their PCT would reach 65.79% if they accomplished this, which ought to be sufficient to secure a spot in the final. However, India's chances could drastically decline if they lose at least four Test matches. They would have a PCT of 64.04% if they had just four victories and no draws, which would allow South Africa, Australia, and even Sri Lanka to pass them. For instance, if South Africa wins all of their remaining games, their percentage might rise to 69.44%.
With a PCT of 62.50%, Australia is now in second place and is under threat. They can finish with 62.28%, which would keep them in the running for a last position, if they manage four victories and one draw in their remaining games. Nevertheless, if they make any mistakes, they can fall behind South Africa and India, depending on the outcome. Third-place finisher Sri Lanka, with a PCT of 55.56%, is still a remote possibility. They could finish with a PCT of over 67% if they can put together a run of wins, but either Australia or South Africa would lose points in the process. India would gain indirectly from this since neither of their rivals would be able to earn the necessary number of points to place in the top two.
India's job is clear, in order to maintain control of their future, Rohit Sharma's team needs to win at least four games, if not more. India needs to do well in the upcoming five-match series in Australia and the next two Test matches against New Zealand. Any mistakes could give Australia or South Africa the advantage, endangering India's chances of reaching the WTC final for the third time in a row.
