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Arsenal have been handed the strongest outlook among Premier League clubs to advance to the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals following the completion of the round of 16 first legs, according to analytics firm Opta.
The Gunners secured a resilient 1-1 draw away at Bayer Leverkusen, positioning them as the standout English contender despite a challenging night in Germany, where a late penalty from Kai Havertz salvaged a crucial away goal.
Ranking Premier League clubs' Quarter-Final hopes after Round of 16 first legs
The round proved difficult for the rest of the Premier League representatives, with no English side managing a victory in their opening matches. Liverpool suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat at Galatasaray in Istanbul, Newcastle held Barcelona to a 1-1 stalemate at home, while Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, and Manchester City endured heavy losses, falling 2-5 at PSG, 2-5 at Atletico Madrid, and 3-0 at Real Madrid, respectively.
Opta's supercomputer simulations now reflect these outcomes, ranking Arsenal ahead of Liverpool and Newcastle among the remaining English teams, with the other three clubs facing significantly steeper paths to the last eight ahead of their home second legs.
- Arsenal: 78.1% (strongest English side after 1-1 draw at Bayer Leverkusen)
- Liverpool: 51.4% (following a 1-0 defeat in Istanbul)
- Newcastle United: 31.9% (after 1-1 home draw vs Barcelona)
- Manchester City: 17.1% (heavy 0-3 loss at Real Madrid)
- Chelsea: 7% (following a 2-5 defeat at PSG)
- Tottenham: 3.3% (after a 2-5 loss at Atletico Madrid)
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